Introduction

Each of us believes that we think rationally and make conscious decisions. It seems that our conclusions are based on logic and objective analysis rather than emotions and biases. However, reality is far more complex.

In fact, most of our decisions are driven not by objective facts but by cognitive biases-systematic thinking errors that lead to incorrect conclusions. These biases emerge as a result of the brain adapting to massive amounts of information. While they help us make decisions quickly, they often steer us away from rational analysis.

Why doesn't logical thinking always lead to the truth? What cognitive biases prevent us from assessing information accurately? And how can we learn to verify our conclusions for accuracy? Let's explore these questions.

When Should We Trust Intuition, and When Should We Reevaluate a Decision?

There is a common belief that intuition is a reliable tool for decision-making, something we can always trust. But is the first impulse really the best choice? Studies in cognitive psychology suggest that, in most cases, the first decision is far from optimal.

Many people are convinced that intuitive decisions have a special accuracy, but numerous experiments prove otherwise. However, nearly everyone can recall a situation where their initial choice turned out to be correct. Why does this happen?

There are two main reasons for this phenomenon:

The Endowment Effect — A psychological phenomenon where we overvalue things or decisions we already possess, assigning them greater importance than alternatives. This subconscious attachment makes us defend our initial choices even when they are not optimal.

Intuition Can Sometimes Be Right — Insome situations, our first instinct is actually correct. The challenge lies in knowing when to trust it and when to critically reassess our choice.

Experiment: How Accurate Are Our Initial Decisions?

To test whether intuitive decisions are truly reliable, researchers conducted an experiment. Students were given a multiple-choice test and asked to assess their confidence in each answer. They categorized their responses as "certain", "think I know", or "guessing". Later, they were asked whether they had changed their initial answers.

What Did the Study Show?

The results revealed that:

• Revised answers were correct in most cases.

• Initial, intuitive answers were more often incorrect.

• This was especially true for questions that caused the greatest uncertainty: in half of these cases, the initial answer was wrong.

Researchers concluded that developing metacognition — the ability to recognize one's own level of confidence in decisions — helps reduce errors and make more accurate choices. Students who used metacognition and consciously analyzed their confidence levels significantly improved their results.

How to Track Confidence Levels in Decisions?

At first glance, the study's findings seem contradictory: if initial answers are often wrong, does that mean we should always change them? Or should we trust our intuition?

The Solution

Instead of blindly trusting first instincts or constantly second-guessing, it's more effective to track how confident you are in a decision.

People who recorded their confidence levels before answering were later able to objectively assess which choices truly needed reconsideration. This approach proved far more effective than relying solely on intuition.

Making Well-Reasoned Decisions

Being aware of our confidence levels is useful not only in tests but also in everyday life. Our memory is prone to many cognitive biases, and our beliefs about ourselves and our experiences often form long before or after a decision is made, rather than at the moment of choice.

Looking back on past decisions, we often realize that some of them were far from objective. However, at the time, they felt like the only right choice.

Tracking our feelings and confidence while making decisions provides valuable insights and helps us make more mindful choices. This skill is particularly helpful in preparing for situations where reevaluating decisions may be necessary.

1. Why Doesn't Logic Always Lead to Truth?

Limitations of Human Thinking

Our brain prioritizes efficiency, so it relies on heuristics — mental shortcuts that save time and simplify complex information. While heuristics are useful in daily life, they can become traps in analytical thinking.

Several factors influence decision-making:

• Information Overload — In today's world, we are exposed to massive amounts of data daily, forcing our brain to filter information and prioritize only what seems important.

• Social Influence — Our opinions are shaped not only by facts but also by the influence of others.

• Emotional Factors — Decisions are often made under the influence of fear, hope, or other emotions rather than logic.

• The Desire to Simplify Reality — We tend to look for patterns even where none exist, leading to faulty conclusions.

2. Common Errors in Analytical Thinking

1. Confirmation Bias

People tend to seek information that supports their existing beliefs and ignore data that contradicts them.

Example: Someone who believes in a particular diet's benefits will disregard scientific studies proving its inefficacy and instead seek out articles that confirm their opinion.

How to avoid it?

• Consciously look for counterarguments.

• Question your own beliefs regularly.

• Analyze information from multiple perspectives.

2. Fundamental Attribution Error

We tend to attribute other people's actions to their character but explain our own actions by external circumstances.

Example: If a colleague misses a deadline, we assume they are lazy or irresponsible. But if we miss a deadline, we blame excessive workload or external factors.

How to avoid it?

• Consider external circumstances before judging someone's actions.

• Ask yourself what factors may have influenced their behavior.

3. Planning Fallacy

People consistently underestimate how much time and resources tasks will require.

Example: A student believes they can prepare for an exam in one night but ends up not finishing in time.

How to avoid it?

• Use reverse planning: start with the deadline and break down necessary steps.

• Learn from past experiences and account for possible delays.

4. Loss Aversion and the Endowment Effect

We overvalue what we already own and fear losses more than we value potential gains.

Example: Someone refuses to sell an old phone they no longer use because "it's already mine".

How to avoid it?

Imagine the item doesn't belong to you and ask: "Would I buy it now?"

5. Dunning-Kruger Effect

The less a person knows about a subject, the more confident they are in their knowledge.

Example: A beginner in chess may believe they play well, but after competing with experienced players, they realize their weaknesses.

How to avoid it?

• Seek feedback from knowledgeable people.

• Acknowledge that Learning is an ongoing process.

How to Verify Your Judgments for Accuracy?

• Critical Information Analysis — Compare sources, assess credibility, and ask: Who benefits from me believing this?

• Context Evaluetion — Consider external factors influencing a situation.

• Devil's Advocate Approach — Challenge your own beliefs by arguing against them.

• Assess Probability of Error — Recognize that confidence does not guarantee correctness.

• Slow Down Decision-Making — When possible, take time for reflection before making a choice.

Conxlusion

To make well-reasoned decisions, it's essential to not only analyze information but also track our confidence in chosen options. This helps reduce cognitive biases and improve critical thinking.

Developing a habit of assessing our confidence in decisions and reviewing them when necessary helps us avoid cognitive traps and make more informed choices. Mindfulness in decision-making is key: rather than blindly following initial instincts or constantly doubting ourselves, we need to find a balance between intuition and rational analysis.

Cognitive biases are not a sign of low intelligence but rather a natural feature of how our brain processes information. By strengthening critical thinking, we can recognize biases, verify information, and make better decisions.

Analytical Thinking in Crisis Decision-Making

Explore how analytical thinking influences decision-making in crisis situations. Discover the balance between logic and emotions, and learn when to prioritize analysis over intuition for effective outcomes.